Our Top 10 Bike Manufacturing Industry Predictions for 2026 and Beyond

1

The European Union’s free trade agreements with Vietnam and Indonesia will ultimately structure the supply chains for up to 99 percent of EU consumer goods over the next two decades, including bicycles and e-bikes.

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) was signed back in 2019 and is already in its sixth year of gradual implementation for each product category. So far, it is expected that 99 percent of product produced in Vietnam for the EU market will achieve full duty-free status by 2027. Both bicycles and e-bikes must conform to Vietnamese or European origin components percentage ratio requirement of 50 percent and a limitation of China origin components percentage ratio requirement of 20 percent. Additionally, the bike frame must be produced in Vietnam. The bike manufacturing industries from Taiwan and China have converged into Vietnam in recent years and there is already a considerable buildup of assembly, frame, and component manufacturers in operation.

The EU and Indonesia finalized negotiations for a free trade pact known as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2025. The agreement is expected to be ratified by the EU and Indonesia by 2026 and then implemented by 2027. Like Vietnam, this free trade agreement will allow up to 98 percent of product produced in Indonesia for the EU market to achieve full duty-free status, taking several years for all product categories to become implemented. Additionally, it is very likely that the rules of origin for bicycles and e-bikes will follow a similar percentage requirement as Vietnam. Unlike Vietnam, there has been very little foreign investment from Taiwan and China bike manufacturing industry into Indonesia in recent years. There is, however, a sizeable domestic OEM bike manufacturing industry that has existed for over a decade and is well-positioned to take full advantage of the CEPA benefits for exporting bikes to the EU.

2

Chinese companies will continue to expand their footprint in the European Union bicycle and e-bike manufacturing and retail sectors through investments, joint ventures, and direct operations.

The influx of China-origin bike manufacturers and retail brands now operating in the European Union continues to grow, vastly outpacing the direct investment from other bike industry manufacturing countries in recent years. For example, there are bike assembly manufacturers such as Devron (Italy), DHS (Romania), Polana (Poland), Zweirad Union also known as Sachsenring Bike Manufaktur (Germany). Bike brands such as Tenways, the former Timyo group (Elon, Keola, Muon, Van Dijck), New Cycle (Kreidler, Rabeneick, VSF) Hepha (Gobao), Lemmo, Tarran, SFM, Paona, Paprika53, Eunorau, FIIDO, Leon Cycle, Steppenwolf. Notable component brands such as Bafang, Ananda, Mivice, Okawa. We expect to see even more Chinese companies operating in the European market in the years to come.

3

China’s domestic bike manufacturing industry transition from Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) to Original Design Manufacturer (ODM), while also giving rise to a new cohort of homegrown brands catering from within China to global bike markets.

In recent years, Chinese OEM bike industry manufacturers have quickly shifted sales strategies in evolving into ODMs, developing their own designs and specifications to compete on the global stage against the biggest brands in the bike industry. The most notable is XDS, a major assembly manufacturer that has grown its domestic market brand into globally recognized brand X-LAB, with sponsorship on Tour de France team XDS Astana. In the electric mountain biking segment, the drone manufacturer DJI produced two spin-off brands – the electric drivetrain brand Avinox and the e-MTB brand Amflow that made a momentous entry into global bike markets and is expected to grow exponentially. Other brands include XCadey, Wheeltop and its acquisition of the Rotor brand in 2024, Yadea / Okawa, Ninebot / Segway, Surron, Seka, Evolve, L-TWOO, Lewis, Cybrei, Rinpoch, Stablead, Elilee, and Flywheel. We expect to see even more Chinese manufacturers expand into the ODM segment and even more China-based homegrown brands entering the global bike markets in every year.

4

Across all major global bike markets, there will be more regulations on imports of electric bikes and electric motorcycles, combined with more regulations on safety standard requirements for batteries and chargers.

To combat the growth of potentially dangerous non-compliant electric bikes, scooters, and motorcycles, and related components such as batteries and chargers that can cause bodily injury and/or fires, central and state governments across the world are implementing new standards to ensure imports meet more stringent safety standards. 

The Australian government recently announced in December 2025 that they will require all bike brands to comply with the EN15194 standard for complete e-bikes and the EN50604 standard for battery packs for light electrical vehicles. This essentially forces all brands selling bikes in Australia to make an upfront investment towards the testing of each e-bike model and its batteries.

In the U.S. market, the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) is expected to implement new safety standard that require all complete bike brands to comply  with Underwriters Laboratories (UL) standards, in particular UL2849 (e-bike electrical systems), UL2271 (battery packs for light electric vehicles), and UL2272 (electrical systems for various personal e-mobility devices such as e-scooters and e-unicycles). This follows the October 2024 New York state legislation S.154F/A.4938-D that requires basically the same requirements for electric bikes, scooters, and motorcycles. Should the CPSC follow through on their plans to mandate UL standards for all e-bikes and batteries, then a similar scenario will play out like Australia, at a much larger scale given the sheer size on the American market and how many brands there are.

5

The disastrous impact on the U.S. bike market should the inclusion of additional types of bicycles, e-bikes, motorcycles, and electric motorcycles to the Section 232 Steel and Aluminum tariff list be implemented.

Following the implementation of the Section 232 Steel and Aluminum tariff in July 2025 as part of the American trade law called the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the steel used in e-bikes, electric motorcycles, indoor trainers, exercise bikes, and some hand tools are subject to the Section 232 tariffs at the current rate of 50 percent. This applies to all countries, apart from the UK at 25 percent. What this means is that non-electric, standard bicycles with steel content, components, and various accessories will not be subject to the Section 232 tariffs for now. However, there also exists specific Section 232 tariffs that apply on specific product from certain countries. For example, on top of the steel products just updated, steel bicycle chains and steel bicycle cables originating from China are additionally subject to the Section 232 tariff rate at 50 percent. So far, the current Section 232 tariffs targeting aluminum products does not include any bicycle, e-bike, electric motorcycle, component, or accessory.

An inclusion process was also initiated immediately after the tariff was implemented that allows domestic U.S. companies and trade groups to file requests to add specific product categories to the tariff list. Requests have been made to include all types of steel and alloy bicycles and e-bikes to the tariff list. If these inclusions are implemented, it is expected that the U.S. bike market will take an enormous hit, causing U.S. importers to shoulder huge upfront tariff costs and inevitably causing bike products to become more expensive for consumers.

6

A trending increase in costs of raw materials and labor for producing bike components and bike assembly manufacturing. This will be especially evident for electric bikes regardless of manufacturing origin.

The post-Covid pandemic era has seen a persistent trend of increasing raw material and labor costs in almost all manufacturing sectors, not just the bike manufacturing industry. For example, Taiwan-based bike manufacturers face an array of challenges including: 1) Increasing energy costs (Taiwan is heavily reliant upon imported fossil fuels for 80 percent of its electricity and has poor renewable energy output at only about 15 percent); 2) Domestic labor shortage due to population decline and disinclination to pursue manufacturing jobs coupled with rising minimum wage expectations and labor insurance costs; 3) Rising raw material costs, especially since almost all materials need to be imported. Additionally, the recent migrant labor allegations by U.S. Customs against Giant Bicycles also incited drastic policy changes by all Taiwan bike industry manufacturers that employed migrant laborers that will inevitably increase overhead costs.

7

Following the spate of high-profile bankruptcies and insolvencies from bike brands in the United States and European Union, the stakeholders (manufacturers, trading companies, and private equity firms) will have suffered enormous losses, which consequently will reduce overall financing as lenders cut back on exposure in the bike manufacturing industry.

Again, the economics of the pandemic era has caused a large number of bike brands in the U.S. and Europe to shutter. These bankruptcies have invariably affected manufacturers and trading companies the most, since they are always considered unsecured creditors. Private equity firms on the other hand are usually equity holders, but even so, the recent bankruptcies have liabilities so huge that all parties are likely to have recovered little to zero value. It is no surprise that private equity has largely retreated from mobility industry investments and that lenders are less inclined to finance bike manufacturing.

8

Taiwan’s bike manufacturing industry will continue to upgrade its compliance measures with international labor standards for migrant workers from Southeast Asia following the ongoing debacle between Giant Bicycles and U.S. Customs that have barred imports into the U.S. market.

Recently in September 2025, the U.S. Customs issued a Withold Release Order (WRO) against Giant Bicycles that blocks all bicycles, e-bikes, and components (both the Giant brand and its OEM customers) from Taiwan to the United States. The reasons are allegedly due to claims of forced labor and debt bondage of migrant labors (typically from Southeast Asia). As of January 2026, the issue has yet to be resolved, although Giant has denied the claims and taken steps to improve migrant laborer living conditions, establishing a zero-cost recruitment fee policy, and instituting independent audits to prove compliance.

The immediate reaction by the Taiwan-based bike manufacturing industry was to implement the same policy changes as Giant and improve general conditions for its migrant labor workforce, which constitutes about 5-10 percent of the total labor force.

9

Geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan intensified in 2025 and has the potential to quickly further deteriorate to the point where cross-strait trade and global trade will be disrupted. The global supply chain for bikes and bike components will be severely affected.

As long as the status quo is maintained, the global economy remains heavily reliant upon China and Taiwan for many resources and consumer products, including bicycles and e-bikes. If things turn sour however, supply chain resilience will be the essential for the survival of the bike manufacturing industry. Given the intrinsic risks involved, especially as geopolitical tensions escalate towards the critical years of 2027 and 2028, bike brands and manufacturers will be keen to diversify production from China and Taiwan to minimize exposure. The immediate options like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Cambodia will offer many proven benefits if new supply chains (not from China or Taiwan) for raw materials and technical components are sorted out. Meanwhile India and its neighboring countries will likely be the future frontier. One thing for sure is that once things calm down afterwards, China and Taiwan will revert to being dominant manufacturing hubs.

10

The rising potential for India’s bicycle, scooter, and motorcycle manufacturing industries.

A recent July 2025 Show Daily article by Laurens Van Rooijen titled India Enters the Global Bicycle Industry Supply Chain concisely details all major developments within India’s bicycle manufacturing scene. Besides its bike manufacturing industry, India also has an equally impressive grip on scooter and motorcycle manufacturing. With a vast domestic market, potentially the largest workforce population in the world, improving infrastructure, and expanding industrial capacity, India offers an exciting potential frontier for brands and manufacturers alike.

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